May
14
2009
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HariesDesign.com - Web 3.0 will help :
Generally I think this is a good post and I respect anyone who tries to
look into the future and puts serious thought into it. I also think the
historical review and interpretation is accurate BUT…
In my experience the breakthrough into new waves
of innovation, especially on the web, never came from major platforms
that were build to start something new and grandiose. The world wide
web itself was started as a experimental project and when Andreesen
& Co. went to meet television networks to talk about the web they
here dismissed as kids playing with their toys while the ‘big guys’ are
building the information super highway for TV on demand … so much for
the next big platform.
This analogy doesn’t fully match with this post but it is still relevant in the sense that while the emergence for enabling technology at the right time is critical, it is people (users) and markets that discover opportunities and create new markets. It is people’s pains and frustrations that make them try truly new solutions to old problems and it is other people that prove that those solutions are valuable and make a difference.
Salesforce wanted to create software that is less painful to run,
service and maintain. People and businesses proved that this is a good
idea and now Salesforce has learned from their developer network that
they want not just to outsource their applications but also their
development environment - which is brilliant. There are even better
examples, i.e. Kevin Rose wanted others to ‘help’ him research for cool
and quality content and news on the web while working for a Tech TV
channel. the result id Digg.com. Facebook, MySpace, Del.icio.us and
even Google have similar stories to tell.
Of course without the necessary tool available (cheap storage and hosting etc.) those web 2.0 services would have never come to existence. So it is the markets willingness to innovate and the drive that comes from frustration and human desires that timely coincide with the emergence of enabling technologies that allow for major waves of innovation to happen. I don’t think one side can do it without the other and while I am a web platform believer I don’t think that the availability of web platform based development can spur a new wave of innovation and adoption comparable the jump form Web 1.0 to 2.0. A good example here is mobile phone networks. The platform for exciting mobile applications has been around for years now (especially in Europe and parts of Asia) but nothing has really happened until Steve finally could not take the pain of dealing with this crappy Samsung / Nokia… whatever …anymore and wanted the web to finally come to his pocket device. He had the leverage, power and technology available to do it but I am sure the real innovation came from his frustrations with what was available before (is that how it happened?) Web 3.0 Whatever you want to call it I believe the next true wave of the web will be the ubiquitous computer / web. Maybe we can call it the UWeb or ueberweb or just the matrix ;-). I believe that the real next big jump will be that users will not have to know anymore where a specific service or information comes from. Smart-phones, notebooks, desktops, local terminals, ATMs, Fridges, TVs all access web based services and deliver a seamless experience giving me access to relevant information, services, people and functionality at any given time. There is a lot of work to do, walled gardens to tear down and privacy and security issues to deal with but the first step is done. I can feel it, I know it… Damn it, I want and iPhone to access all my stuff from anywhere :-) Here is how I’ve outlined the phases/eras/usage modes (repeatedly over the years via several blog posts):
Web 1.0 - Visual Web (Web Pages Rule)
In pre web computing realms, applications have always been comprised of: Items 1-3 are connected by messaging systems, and in the case of the Web, HTTP delivers the messaging glue across the realms. |
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